Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: the AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Several European countries have suspended the inoculation of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of suspicion of causing deep vein thrombosis. In this letter we report some Fermi estimates performed using a stochastic model aimed at making a risk-benefit analysis of the interruption of the delivery of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France and Italy. Our results clearly show that excess deaths due to the interruption of the vaccination campaign injections largely overrun those due to thrombosis even in worst case scenarios of frequency and gravity of the vaccine side effects.

Domaines

Santé publique et épidémiologie Physique et Société [physics.soc-ph] Physique Médicale [physics.med-ph] Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]

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Faranda_et_al_AstraZeneca.pdf (543.65 Ko)

Faranda_et_al_AstraZeneca_SM.pdf (386.14 Ko)

Resume_Faranda_et_al_preprint_Francais.pdf (300.15 Ko)

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https://hal.science/hal-03172578

Soumis le : mercredi 17 mars 2021-18:16:03

Dernière modification le : vendredi 19 avril 2024-16:18:58

Archivage à long terme le : lundi 21 juin 2021-08:54:37

Dates et versions

hal-03172578 , version 1 (17-03-2021)

hal-03172578 , version 2 (06-05-2021)

Identifiants

HAL Id : hal-03172578 , version 1
DOI : 10.1063/5.0050887

Citer

Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti, Maxence Arutkin, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini. Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: the AstraZeneca case for France and Italy. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2021, 31, pp.041105. ⟨10.1063/5.0050887⟩. ⟨hal-03172578v1⟩

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