principaux!objectifs!pour!le!développement!durable!du!secteur!de! l'électricité! du! Vietnam! en! 2050,! mais! ils! ont! des! impacts! différents! sur! les! aspects!économiques,!sociaux!et!environnementaux.! D'un!point!de!vue!économique,!le!scénario!de!l'efficacité!énergétique!offre!un! coût!d'investissement!initial ,
décarbonisation.! La! facture! des! importations! des! énergies! fossiles! pour! la! production!représentait!environ!2%!de!PIB,!si!le!Vietnam!ne!veut!pas!installer!des! centrales! nucléaires! et! déploiement! du! produire! l'électricité ,
! le! besoin! des! terres! pour! développer! la! production! d'électricité! dans! les!scénarios!est!plus!ou!moins!important!selon!les!sources ,
exploitation! des! ressources! naturelles! et! l'utilisation! d'une! mainA d'oeuvre! moins! chères! que ,
présent! et! le! ! ! 216! futur,! entre! la! croissance! et! l'augmentation! de! la! pollution ,
!cette!fois!axée!sur! la! thématique! environnementale,! et! non! plus! seulement! économique ,
!le!Vietnam!subit!et!va!subir,!de! manière! de! plus! en! plus! prégnante,! de! nouvelles! incertitudes! concernant! l'insécurité! des! prix! internationaux! et! l'approvisionnement! à! l'étranger! de! ses! ressources!énergétiques.!Ainsi,!après!la!maîtrise!de!la!demande!d'électricité ,
énergie! et! l'environnement! mais! il! conduirait! aussi! à! des! coûts! de! production! d'électricité! très! élevés,! plus! élevés! en! tout! cas! que! tous! les! scénarios! présentés! dans!cette!étude.!Une!telle!politique,!peu!concernée!par!les!questions!écologiques! et!environnementales,!provoquerait!aussi!des!coûts!supplémentaires!relatifs!aux! soins! de! santé!;! en! effet ,
! Cette! stratégie! est! donc! fortement! recommandée! au! regard! des! avantages! tels! qu'ils! sont! perçus! et! calculés! à! la! ,
nucléaire! après! usage! constituent! aussi! des! risques! potentiels! supportés! par! les! populations! pendant! plusieurs! siècles.!C'est!la!grande!inconnue!de!ce!scenario,!à!la!fois!pratique!et,!sembleAtAil ,
Vietnam! ne! s'engage! pas! dans! le! choix! de! l'énergie! nucléaire.! Pour! protéger! l'environnement! local! et! limiter! les! émissions! de! CO2,! le! Vietnam! pourrait! alors! mettre! en! oeuvre! la! technologie! CCS! sur! une! grande! échelle! dans! les! centrales! thermique ,
!le!coût!moyen!de!la! production! d'électricité! du! Vietnam! sur! toute! la! période! d'étude! augmentera! environ! 10%! par! rapport! à! celui! du! scénario! NUC.! Cependant ,
utilisation!des!sols!pour!les! autres!secteurs!de!l'économie.!Le!Vietnam!est!le!14e!pays!le!plus!peuplé!avec!une! superficie!inférieure!à!la!moitié!de!celle!de!la!France.!Il!est!vrai!qu'il!serait!sans ,
peuvent! être! mieux! orientés! pour! l'avenir,! en! utilisant! des! analyses! plus! ouvertes,! en! fonction! des! résultats! obtenus! selon! les! scenarios! que! nous! avons! retenus.! Cependant ,
!mais!cette!analogie,!très!simple!dans!sa!mise!en!place,!n'est!sans!doute! pas! suffisamment! convaincante! au! regard! des! modèles! de! prévision! plus! ! ! 221! complexes,! qui! peuvent! souligner! les! spécificités! d'un! pays! qui! l!les!informations! quantitatives!disponibles!sont!souvent!insuffisantes.!! C'est! pourquoi! cette! étude! est! fondée! principalement! sur! la! prévision! de! la! demande! totale! d'électricité! de! l'économie.! Or,! les! prévisions! de! la! demande! d'électricité! par! secteur! sont! susceptibles! d'apporter! une! plus! grande! précision! pour! améliorer! l'efficacité! énergétique! globale! du! pays ,
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