The INDC counter, aggregation of national contributrions and 2°C trajectories

Abstract : Considering that limiting global warming to below 2°C implies a CO2 budget not to be exceeded and near-zero emissions by 21OO (IPCC), we can assess global 2030 greenhouse gas emissions implied by INDCs in comparison to long-term trajectories. Ahead of the COP21, we estimate that submitted INDCs would bring global greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 55 to 64 GtC02eq in 2030. Under this assumption,global emissions in 2030 are thus higher than the level of 51GtC0 2eq for the year 2012. However, this is not in contradiction with a peaking of global emissions that can only be expected after 2020, given in particular the projected dynamics of emissions in China and other developing countries. The published INDCs represent a significant step towards trajectories compatible with the 2°C goal,but remain insufficient to join trajectories presenting a reasonable probability of success. ln order to increase the chance of meeting the 2°C objective, the ambition of the short-term contributions needs to be strengthened in future negotiations. ln order to sustain a high pace in emissions reductions after 2030,structural measures are also needed, which, in order to have a rapi impact, should be prepared as early as possible. Continued efforts are needed to accelerate the development of low carbon solutions on the one hand,and demonstrate the feasibility of negative emissions on the other hand.
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Rapport
[Research Report] 32, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Climate Modelling Center Scientific Note. 2015, 73 p
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Hélène Benveniste, Patrick Criqui, Olivier Boucher, Francois-Marie Breon, Céline Guivarch, et al.. The INDC counter, aggregation of national contributrions and 2°C trajectories. [Research Report] 32, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Climate Modelling Center Scientific Note. 2015, 73 p. 〈hal-01245354〉

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